Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.050847 0.057763 0.065494 0.074816 0.085805 0.098414 0.114069
2026-01-11 0.041815 0.050728 0.061532 0.075740 0.094154 0.117517 0.149901
2026-01-18 0.035095 0.045037 0.057967 0.076342 0.102328 0.138619 0.194724
2026-01-25 0.029160 0.039286 0.053296 0.074646 0.107382 0.157495 0.243845
2026-02-01 0.024089 0.033852 0.048111 0.071246 0.109463 0.173287 0.295666
2026-02-08 0.020991 0.030736 0.045752 0.071705 0.118012 0.202867 0.386033
2026-02-15 0.018477 0.028098 0.043676 0.072268 0.127255 0.237859 0.508108
2026-02-22 0.016561 0.026102 0.042303 0.073834 0.139203 0.283974 0.688354
2026-03-01 0.014895 0.024260 0.040874 0.075048 0.151230 0.336946 0.933518
2026-03-08 0.013172 0.022053 0.038411 0.073706 0.157609 0.380862 1.200469
2026-03-15 0.011325 0.019364 0.034597 0.068712 0.154033 0.397782 1.399666
2026-03-22 0.010328 0.018112 0.033387 0.069202 0.164696 0.463780 1.896100
2026-03-29 0.009566 0.017227 0.032824 0.071240 0.181120 0.563020 2.759276
2026-04-05 0.008787 0.016200 0.031792 0.071947 0.194495 0.664959 3.923164
2026-04-12 0.008085 0.015233 0.030734 0.072375 0.207687 0.781394 5.623572
2026-04-19 0.007335 0.014067 0.029034 0.070676 0.213367 0.873113 7.563858
2026-04-26 0.006590 0.012818 0.026950 0.067409 0.212300 0.933597 9.567390
2026-05-03 0.006134 0.012150 0.026156 0.067767 0.225667 1.094200 14.294937
2026-05-10 0.005734 0.011554 0.025447 0.068233 0.240182 1.287727 22.038581
2026-05-17 0.005418 0.011112 0.025055 0.069643 0.260123 1.558929 36.989617
2026-05-24 0.005118 0.010670 0.024595 0.070732 0.279771 1.874725 63.872068
2026-05-31 0.004756 0.010038 0.023527 0.069449 0.287246 2.105997 98.914802
2026-06-07 0.004307 0.009151 0.021639 0.064775 0.274488 2.115507 120.318531